On the heels of a strong 0.7% gain in November, sales at “food service and drinking places” ticked down 0.1% in December on a month-over-month basis, according to delayed data on retail sales from the Census Bureau released Feb. 9. Total sales on a seasonally adjusted basis fell to $100.2 billion in December, from an upwardly revised $100.4 billion. The CB had reported a $100.3 billion increase in its “advance” estimate for November, published last month. It had initially set month-over-month growth at 0.6%.
The National Restaurant Assn., in its analysis of the numbers wrote, “While the trendline wobbled a bit in the fourth quarter, restaurant sales growth outperformed the overall retail sector during much of 2025. Eating and drinking place sales stood 4.7% above their year-ago level in December, which was more than double the 2.1% increase in non-restaurant retail sales during the 12-month period.
“However, as in recent years, rising menu prices drove much of the sales growth in 2025. After adjusting for menu price inflation, eating and drinking place sales rose just 0.6% between December 2024 and December 2025.”
NRA also pointed out that, “Despite the downtick in December, total eating and drinking place sales topped $300 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. That was up 0.7% from the third quarter’s sales volume, and represented the first quarter on record with sales above the $300 billion level.”
Overall retail sales were flat. Only a few major sectors posted m-o-m growth including building material and garden equipment retailers (1.2%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and bookstores (0.4%), gas stations (0.3%) and food and beverage retailers (0.2%). Grocery store sales rose a mere 0.1%. One of the surprises in the report was the data on non-store retailers (including big online purveyors). Sales rose just 0.1% and were also flat in the estimate for November. Census Bureau: Advance Retail Sales 12-25; NRA: Retail Foodservice Sales 12-25
Restaurant and bars outperformed grocery stores in 2025, despite the loss of customer visits from lower-income households. For the 12 months ending December 2025, eating and drinking place sales rose 4.7% on a current dollar basis and grew 0.6% after the Consumer Price Index food-away-from-home price index’s 12-month gain of 4.1% is subtracted. Grocery stores posted only a 1.5% 12-month increase but shrank 0.9% in real terms after factoring out 2.4% food-at-home inflation.
